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A SPRING ISSUE - MAY - tviNews Events
Sorry, folks, but it's numbers that send and receive clear look-listen signals. Auction Who's Who and GRAPHS
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The FCC Card Game. Verizon Wireless, the highest bidder in the multibillion-dollar sale of prime airwaves disclosed its plans for the wireless spectrum Friday, and the most prominent loser explained why it was still a big winner.
MORE FCC AUCTION STORY /



00SideBar00pMay1-108w.jpg1. Feature Story / "Sold" -- said the FCC auctioneer to the highes bidders at the end of Round 129 - Friday, February 29, 2008.
The winners walked away paying $19,555,473,900, for 62 MHz of RF-300 spectrums payable to the U.S. government. CLICK FOR MORE ABOUT RF-300.com
Without Google, the spectrum auction might not have attracted the minimum $4.6-Billion bid required to trigger the openness rules. But as reports come in, the government was said to be happy with the number $19.6 billion.
Some of the airwaves spectrums abandoned by TV stations as part of the February 2009 switch from analog to all-digital signals will be part of VoIP network that will be combined with land-lines to produce a joint public - commercial network that would give priority to police and firefighters during emergencies.
But that piece, called the D block, received only one bid, for $472 million, far below the $1.3- billion minimum.
The Los Angeles Times were the first to report (April) -- that despite raising a record $19.6 billion, congress is asking the FCC, to go back to the drawing board to determine the best way to create a nationwide public safety network after no private-sector partners emerged during the auction, Chairman Kevin J. Martin said.
Google Inc. -- was accused of "gaming" the auction. They said the Internet search giant bid only to assure that new provisions would kick in on a large swath of the spectrum allowing people to use any device or application -- including ad-supported services Google wants to offer.
Those lawmakers also criticized Martin for pushing the open-access requirements, which they argued lowered the demand for those airwaves and probably cost the government billions of dollars. Verizon won the airwaves for $4.74 billion, while the rest of the auction produced three times as much per unit of spectrum.
2010/ImagesNBS100/GoogleNBSRFAirwaves108w.jpg Google had said that it was prepared to buy the spectrum, but that its main priority was to assure the rules kicked in. Spokesman Adam Kovacevich said the company was "proud" of its role in helping open part of the closed wireless world to new devices and applications.
"This auction generated not only a record amount for the U.S. Treasury, but also historic new rights for wireless consumers as a direct result of Google's bidding," he said.
Martin defended the auction against bipartisan criticism, noting that it raised about $500 million more than the agency's previous 68 spectrum sales combined.
"The auction stands as the most successful FCC auction ever conducted, but there's still more work that needs to be done," he said.
The first 16 FCC Spectrum Bidding process held between July 1994 and July 1998, raised a net of $22.9 billion dollars for the U.S Treasury -- assigning 5,893 licenses
Some of the licenses are paid for with installment payments over 10 years. The $22.9 billion figure includes the sum of these payments. Recently, some of the bidders in the C-block auction have defaulted on their payments. The $22.9 billion figure does not deduct any losses from defaults.
Lawmakers wanting to fix the major communications problems that emergency workers faced during the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and Hurricane Katrina included: Rep. Joe L. Barton (R-Texas) and Subcommittee Chairman Rep. Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.). But Martin said Congress would have to authorize such a plan.
Rep. Barton said a public/private partnership was the best option and could work if the FCC adjusted the rules to encourage more bidders.

Part 02 / Friday, February 29, 2008: Bidding at the end of Round 129

License

MHz

Aggregate Total PWBs

Aggregate Reserve

Delta

% of Reserve

Total Pops

Current Cost per MHz-pop

A

12

$3,949,829,000

$1,807,380,000

$2,142,449,000

219%

285,245,819

$1.15

B

12

$9,136,750,900

$1,374,426,000

$7,762,324,900

665%

284,435,538

$2.68

C

22

$4,748,319,000

$4,637,854,000

$110,465,000

102%

285,620,445

$0.76

D

10

$472,042,000

$1,330,000,000

$(857,958,000)

35%

285,620,445

$0.17

E

6

$1,248,533,000

$903,690,000

$344,843,000

138%

285,620,445

$0.73

Total

62 MHz

$19,555,473,900

$10,053,350,000


Thursday, February 28, 2008: Bidding at the end of Round 129

License

MHz

Aggregate Total PWBs

Aggregate Reserve

Delta

% of Reserve

Total Pops

Current Cost per MHz-pop

A

12

$3,948,515,000

$1,807,380,000

$2,141,135,000

218%

285,245,819

$1.15

B

12

$9,134,733,900

$1,374,426,000

$7,760,307,900

665%

284,435,538

$2.68

C

22

$4,748,319,000

$4,637,854,000

$110,465,000

102%

285,620,445

$0.76

D

10

$472,042,000

$1,330,000,000

$(857,958,000)

35%

285,620,445

$0.17

E

6

$1,244,316,000

$903,690,000

$340,626,000

138%

285,620,445

$0.73

Total

62

$19,547,925,900

$10,053,350,000


••• Today's net was just over $5M, and again it was driven by continued activity on big licenses in the E block. A quick look at the first graph shows the total value of new bids has remained nearly constant over the past three days, with only some very modest declines revealing themselves today. This is a good indication that the remaining major bidders have been bidding enough to maintain their eligibility levels, and that no major bidders have dropped out lately.
••• The Denver-Orlando-Phoenix pattern in the E block was altered again today: Yesterday, Orlando was replaced by New Orleans and Las Vegas, and today Denver was replaced with Minneapolis, a slightly bigger but less expensive license. Once again, Phoenix was the third license in the pattern to receive a bid today. So today's pattern was Minneapolis-New Orleans/Las Vegas-Phoenix, and of course all received counterbids. The bidders involved do not seem tired.

Wednesday, February 27, 2008: Bidding at the end of Round 123

License

MHz

Aggregate Total PWBs

Aggregate Reserve

Delta

% of Reserve

Total Pops

Current Cost per MHz-pop

A

12

$3,947,956,000

$1,807,380,000

$2,140,576,000

218%

285,245,819

$1.15

B

12

$9,133,641,900

$1,374,426,000

$7,759,215,900

665%

284,435,538

$2.68

C

22

$4,748,319,000

$4,637,854,000

$110,465,000

102%

285,620,445

$0.76

D

10

$472,042,000

$1,330,000,000

$(857,958,000)

35%

285,620,445

$0.17

E

6

$1,240,930,000

$903,690,000

$337,240,000

137%

285,620,445

$0.72

Total

62

$19,542,888,900

$10,053,350,000


•••It was another record low for the auction, as the total proceeds today were just $5.4M. However, as predicted yesterday, the general bidding activity trend reversed itself today, as the number of new bids either increased or stayed the same in each round of the day until the last. This can be seen in today's first graph. Once again the E block was most active drawing nearly $4M in new bids, due in part to more bids on several large licenses.
•••The Denver-Orlando-Phoenix bidding pattern in the E block almost repeated itself today for the fifth consecutive day, the only deviation being that the Orlando license was replaced by a combination of New Orleans and Las Vegas. Together these two licenses are about the same size as Orlando in terms of pops and bidding units (combined they are less than 5% smaller), but the total bid price for both is about a third of Orlando's $30M price tag. So it seems that the bidding in E has in fact moved to smaller licenses as predicted yesterday, and we believe this trend will continue. At six rounds per day, this means that we could be in for a long haul to the end.

Tuesday, February 26, 2008: Bidding at the end of Round 117

License

MHz

Aggregate Total PWBs

Aggregate Reserve

Delta

% of Reserve

Total Pops

Current Cost per MHz-pop

A

12

$3,947,354,000

$1,807,380,000

$2,139,974,000

218%

285,245,819

$1.15

B

12

$9,132,667,900

$1,374,426,000

$7,758,241,900

664%

284,435,538

$2.68

C

22

$4,748,319,000

$4,637,854,000

$110,465,000

102%

285,620,445

$0.76

D

10

$472,042,000

$1,330,000,000

$(857,958,000)

35%

285,620,445

$0.17

E

6

$1,237,089,000

$903,690,000

$333,399,000

137%

285,620,445

$0.72

Total

62

$19,537,471,900

$10,053,350,000


•••The auction netted only $6.2M today, another record low number, but certainly not the last. Although daily proceeds continue to decline as shown in the first graph, all indications are that we are still a few dozen rounds from the end, as the day saw more than a few bidding wars continue as well as several new bids placed on long-idle licenses. The second graph shows the number of bids placed, and indicates somewhat of a small resurgence in the A block along with a very slow decline overall, but it is a decline that could easily reverse itself or go flat tomorrow.
•••For the fourth day in a row, the bidding pattern on the E block licenses of Denver, Orlando and Phoenix was repeated. That is, for the last four consecutive bidding days a bidder has placed bids in the first, third, and fifth rounds of the day on the Denver, Orlando and Phoenix licenses, respectively; and in the second, fourth and sixth rounds, the incumbent has placed the appropriate counterbid.

2006/Imagespeople/%23FCCcommitmentLogo01108w.jpgToday, these six bids caused the aggregate PWB of the E block to increase by nearly $4M, or 85% of the E block total and 62% of the entire net proceeds of the day from all bidding. We have to assume that one way or another, this money will be coming from Qualcomm. If this activity suddenly stops, the auction will be quickly be reduced to another level by almost an order of magnitude. But we suspect that rather than stop, this bidding activity may move around to other licenses once the limits on Denver, Orlando, and Phoenix are reached.
•••A few licenses in the Dakotas are still active in the A block, and B block activity is spread out with pockets of activity in Kentucky, Georgia, Michigan, Virginia, and the Caribbean territories. In addition to the six big bids discussed above, there were a several other bids on E block licenses today that included activity on several licenses in the southwest desert, such as Tucson, Flagstaff & Santa Fe. Other than that, the bidding action in E was generally widespread geographically. In all three blocks there were several new bids today on licenses that had laid idle for many rounds, so the action is continuing to move around.
•••Apparently the FCC clearly does not share our desire to speed this auction along, so we will have another six-round day tomorrow.
Part 03 / Monday, February 25, 2008: Bidding at the end of Round 111

License

MHz

Aggregate Total PWBs

Aggregate Reserve

Delta

% of Reserve

Total Pops

Current Cost per MHz-pop

A

12

$3,946,618,000

$1,807,380,000

$2,139,238,000

218%

285,245,819

$1.15

B

12

$9,131,734,900

$1,374,426,000

$7,757,308,900

664%

284,435,538

$2.68

C

22

$4,748,319,000

$4,637,854,000

$110,465,000

102%

285,620,445

$0.76

D

10

$472,042,000

$1,330,000,000

$(857,958,000)

35%

285,620,445

$0.17

E

6

$1,232,546,000

$903,690,000

$328,856,000

136%

285,620,445

$0.72

Total

62

$19,531,259,900

$10,053,350,000


•••We are now through 22 days of bidding, and the auction is extremely slow and showing few signs of stopping anytime soon. The net proceeds today were only $6.7M, just over $1M per round, but bidding activity was nearly constant. The first graph shows bidding activity, and we have added gray bars representing the total new bids (i.e., the sum of all new bids across all blocks) and this did not continue its downward trend today. Similarly, the second graph shows only a very slight decline in the value of bidding activity. The A block is closest to being finished, having gained only $230K today, and averaging just three bids per round.
•••The E block was responsible for $5M of today's $6.7M proceeds, partly because the pattern of bids on Denver, Orlando and Phoenix repeated itself for the third consecutive day. With each bid, there was a counterbid, so none of these licenses have changed hands yet. But since this activity started a few days ago, the PWB on the Denver license has increased by $4.4M (or 27%), the Orlando PWB has increased by $4.2M (or 17%), and the Phoenix PWB has increased $3.1M (or 17%). This represents a very significant portion of the recent activity in the auction, so we will see a sudden drop when one of these two bidders gives up.
VidstoneWiFi187Plume46w.jpg4. Related Stories /Interested in further auction analysis and wireless strategy? Contact us at auction@wirelessstrategy.com or 703-506-0041.
•••Information is compiled from publicly available data on the FCC web site. Wireless Strategy, LLC cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this information and shall not be held liable for any errors or omissions. Observations are the opinions of Wireless Strategy, LLC, and are not based on confidential or proprietary bidding information.
•••All material copyright © 2007, 2008 Wireless Strategy, LLC.

•••5. NBS100 Review WiFi / NBS100 TeleComunication Study - Regulatory Frequency Seizure
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•••More Articles • Converging News 2008 / TeleCom BuyOuts, Spinoffs and Asset Seizure Boom
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